Will there be Lifetime Licenses available?

[Aleslosh]

I'm probably overthinking this, but enrious makes an interesting point...

As another Alpha, I have no objections to breaking the exclusivity but would be if the price point was lower than what I paid.

I think the real question is at what point does it stop making sense for Lone Wolf to offer lifetime access, from a money perspective.

If I were LWD (which, of course, I'm not), I'd have to believe that a very high number of folks (say.... 1,000?) would need to be interested in the Lifetime option within the first year to offer it outside of the original Kickstarter in order to implement such a program. If my marketing guru believes this is achievable, a high portion of those monies (75% ?) that come in from that would go to research and development (80%RW and 20%futre LWD projects), another 5% into maintaining the program and the final 20% into the general administrative ledger.

Why did I break it out this way? Just to show the amount that may actually go to R&D for RW/RW Cloud Service and other projects and how much might go to Profit - that final 20%. If anything like this model was used, that would mean that (using $250 as the Lifetime amount) ~$200 would go towards the costs of the Developers time for R&D as a one time contribution from, uh...me. Multiply this by the first years Lifetime goal and you have 200K for R&D. A tidy sum, yes. Enough for two Developers for the first year? Probably not. Now take into account that the amount of new Lifetime memberships will inevitably dwindle over the first three years. Not a rosy picture for the keeping the Developers.

However, if a Lifetime program were implemented that focused on Discounts to all products and services provided by LWD, that could indeed be very worth while.

(Big Assumption follows...) Assuming that the existing products and services have a very healthy profit margin built in (say.... over 30%?), I could then see that a low Lifetime fee of $250 could be practical. The model changes but now the Marketing guru has an additional tool in his tool box, you build customer loyalty to your products/services and the monies lost in discounts are made up in volume, etc., etc.

All that being said, I think the Lifetime access granted to the kickstarters should be distinctly different than the program developed for the general public. This would then keep the integrity of the original agreement yet would still allow a little extra profit to be made from the Kickstarters when they then choose to opt for the public Lifetime program.

 

[Jaynay27]

Keep in mind also that RW software sales and cloud subscriptions will not be the only source of ongoing revenue.
The community marketplace will allow LWD to sell actual game content (presumably from 3rd parties, but doesn't have to be) and I am sure they will take their cut from these sales (and rightly so!).

So much like Herolab, where you buy the standalone software and don't *have* to spend any more...the lure of additional content/source material could be very profitable in and of itself.

So return to the original topic - even if they did offer more lifetime subscriptions they would still make money from content sales.

Oh - 1 other point. the kickstarter FAQ actually says this (underlining mine):

"As an Alpha Wolf Backer, you will receive the highest tier of cloud service available and this will be available to you for free for the life of your account. There will be no on-going, monthly cost to utilize the Realm Works cloud, so you'll realize all the advantages it provides to you and your players without any costs. This is a Kickstarter-only perk, as we have no plans to allow the purchase of lifetime cloud support in any other way. It is a unique opportunity available only to Backers, and is similar to a “lifetime subscription”. You're essentially pre-paying at one price to help get the Kickstarter funded now, after which you won't have to pay for the cloud service again."

One could read that this suggests they may offer lifetime subs at *lower* than top tier cloud access, for new customers, and reserve *top tier* lifetime access for the original backers.

 

[Aleslosh]

Very good points indeed! Lol, right now I'd be satisfied with REGULAR access, but a tiered Cloud access could very well make a lot of sense. I momentarily forgot about the content sales as an added profit center. LWD could be a very formidable player in this niche market.

As a side note to all of this.... If they ever go Public, I want in on the IPO! The diversity of products and the flexibility of the overall platform to adapt to any gaming system or GMs imagination is unique to the marketplace.

 

[daleperchn]

@Jaynay27. I think you're playing around again, but just in case you're not, I want to make two points:

1. As you underlined in your post, they said, "we have no plans". Doesn't mean that they would never change their mind.

2. Along with that, they also said that what was available to KS backers is "similar to a lifetime subscription". So that technically doesn't exclude them from offering a lifetime subscription.

But being serious, I think $250 is pretty fair. That's the price that was in the KS, BUT those backers also get early access, which the rest of us are all drooling over. I'd put that as probably worth $50 or so. Many of us would have participated in the KS if we'd only known about it. I know I would have found the money somehow to be able to do it if I'd known about it.

Plus if they make it much more, say $400, then I'll just set everything up without my subscription being active, then just subscribe when I'm running a lot of gaming sessions, and stop the subscription when I'm not. In the long run they'll probably get more money out of me by letting me do a lifetime subscription. Say I run sessions 6 months out of the year, then we take a break from gaming, or I'm just a player for 6 months. At the $25 for 6 months level, that would take 10 years to get the $250 out of me. Of course that's a lower tier too...

And of course not knowing what's included in the various tiers, or even how many tiers there will be (sounds like at least 3) makes it hard to discuss things too. Hopefully there will be some more news on pricing and tiers soon.

 

[Jaynay27]

@Jaynay27. I think you're playing around again, but just in case you're not, I want to make two points:

Not sure what you mean by 'playing around' or 'again'?

I have been pretty clear that my position (as a KS backer with lifetime access) is that I DON'T have a problem with LWD offering this to new customers, providing the cost is not less than what I paid for as a backer.

And for the record - I was being serious - and pointing out that there may be a possibility they open this up to more than just the KS backers...I would have thought that was a positive thing, not a negative one.

You are right though - LWD has every right to change their mind, but as stated previously, they should probably consult with affected backers for the sake of a good customer experience. The quoted part of the KS seems pretty clear that lifetime access was meant to be a KS exclusive, but not one of the KS backers that have posted in this thread (including myself) have said they would have a problem with LWD opening this up to new customers, just not at a reduced cost from what we paid.

When I said this:

One could read that this suggests they may offer lifetime subs at *lower* than top tier cloud access, for new customers, and reserve *top tier* lifetime access for the original backers.

I was simply observing that if there was a HUGE uproar by the KS backers who put their cash up early, LWD could potentially have an option to offer lifetime subscriptions for cloud access, whilst keeping the KS backers happy.

Based on all the conversations I have had with backers, on the KS website, here and on 3rd party websites, they/we don't seems like the kind of people who would have a problem with this, but I don't speak for everyone.

I mean, its not like a MMO where certain items or status could be seen as valuable, and exclusivity/status is seen (by some) as important. We basically all want the same thing from RW...there is nothing lost by opening up lifetime cloud access to the wider community here.

And we still get our Alpha Wolf badges for recognition anyway.

The other point is that we don't really know the ins and outs of the cloud access yet. I could have put down the $250 to discover that entry level cloud access would have been sufficient for me all along. I had to take a gamble that the lifetime cloud access was worth it to me (with no clear idea of pricing or plans) upfront, and put the money down. New customers wont have that problem at release. You get the benefit of choice and you could even choose a plan, see how it goes and up/downgrade if you want. So Alpha Wolves don't have ALL the advantages here.

If I misread your tone, then I apologise, but I don't know what to make of your post.

Maybe it is just the bad day bubbling up to the surface again

 

[Mystic Lemur]

As long as it makes sense from a financial perspective.

They can't reasonably set a price for lifetime access until they have a better idea of the costs of servicing their subscribers. The Kickstarter price was probably based on an early projection that has little resemblance to how things are actually working even now, before the initial release. The subscription price has to account for past cost overruns as well as the future costs of servicing the customer. Any "Lifetime" subscription has to be priced at least equal to the present value of estimated future subscription payments, or else they're going to lose money.

 

[monsterfurby]

Any "Lifetime" subscription has to be priced at least equal to the present value of estimated future subscription payments, or else they're going to lose money.

Allow me to play the devil's advocate here:
Not necessarily - projections can be inaccurate in both ways. Also, while it's a fine line, as a Kickstarter backer you don't really "purchase" the reward. You donate and receive a reward in return. Hence why many kickstarter campaigns rely on fairly vague rewards. Also Kickstarter Backers at higher tiers received a whole reward package, not just one item. That's why the "it should at least cost the same as the KS tier" argument is fairly insubstantial.

That said, keep in mind that this is mainly for the sake of argument. LWD have said that they won't sell lifetime subscriptions and that's fine, I just thing that the lead argument brought forth by some in this thread is flawed.

 

[zarlor]

It's not flawed when you consider that those KS tiers provide a perceived value. In essence a price was set and the perception of the overall value of that lifetime subscription in itself sets that value moving forward. Thus KS backers will have a perception of the value of that subscription and should LWD offer that same subscription in the future but for a lesser amount then those backers may see that their reason for being a backer to begin with was devalued. It should also be remembered here that KS backers are also accepting a level of risk that those able to purchase a product later won't be taking at all. So it's not as simple as saying those KS backers "got more stuff" than just a lifetime subscription. There are far more variables involved and when it comes to economics perceived value and customer satisfaction also need to be considered, whether you consider those to be rational considerations or not.

 

[EightBitz]

It's not flawed when you consider that those KS tiers provide a perceived value. In essence a price was set and the perception of the overall value of that lifetime subscription in itself sets that value moving forward. Thus KS backers will have a perception of the value of that subscription and should LWD offer that same subscription in the future but for a lesser amount then those backers may see that their reason for being a backer to begin with was devalued. It should also be remembered here that KS backers are also accepting a level of risk that those able to purchase a product later won't be taking at all. So it's not as simple as saying those KS backers "got more stuff" than just a lifetime subscription. There are far more variables involved and when it comes to economics perceived value and customer satisfaction also need to be considered, whether you consider those to be rational considerations or not.

For anyone who disagrees with this, ask yourself this question: "If I invested $250 in the Kickstarter so I could have a lifetime subscription, and LWD subsequently offered it to non-backers for [just to throw out a number] $200, would I be happy about that?"

Personally, I absolutely would not. As everyone here likely knows by now *ahem* *cough*, I was not a backer. If LWD were to offer post-release lifetime subscriptions, I would not expect, I would not ask for, and I would not respect anything less than $250.

 

[Mystic Lemur]

Arctic Wolf was set at $80 and included 15 months of free cloud service. Dire Wolf was $20 more and included everything at the Arctic Wolf level plus a lifetime "Charter Backer" discount on cloud service. Therefore, the value of "Charter Backer" pricing was estimated to be $20. (Actually a little less, since Dire Wolf also gets priority placement of shared content for six months) Since we don't know the pricing yet, there is no way to estimate the real worth of that discount.

Alpha Wolf level cost $250, which was $170 more than Arctic Wolf. The only difference between the two, is one gives you 15 months of free cloud service, and the other gives you lifetime "premium" cloud service. Therefore, the estimated value of lifetime premium cloud service was $170 (less the estimated cost of 15 months of free service, which we don't know). Presumably this was a discounted value since backers were paying for something they weren't going to use until some time later, as well as any discount for being an early backer.

All that to say that lifetime cloud service will be dependent on the final price of cloud service. Paying $300 now would be roughly equivalent to paying $35 per year for 10 years, assuming 3% inflation. If the cost per year will be higher than $35, the cost for lifetime service would be higher. LWD cost of capital and required return on investment are certainly higher than inflation, and only they know their estimates for the expected "lifetime" of Realm Works.

 

[Hubrice]

You can also view the idea of a "life-time service" as an investment for both the customer and LW.

LW receives a substantial boost in income upfront that they can use to build infrastructure, coding, etc and whatnot. This is similar to the idea behind the higher KS levels, get more money now to work with even if "in the long run" you lose money by giving away so much down the road. Is the quick burst in income worth lost sales down the road? Only LW can answer that.

Customers are investing a larger amount of money now, in the hopes that they will break even, or come out ahead down the road. But what if LW's business model changes, they get bought out, technology changes impact their servers, or they all win the lottery and decide to buy their own islands and retire? There is risk for the consumer.

Regardless I am looking forward to the public release. It is my hope that once I have the product, deciding to pay for a year or a lifetime upfront is a no-brainer.

 

[Aleslosh]

Regardless I am looking forward to the public release. It is my hope that once I have the product, deciding to pay for a year or a lifetime upfront is a no-brainer.

When it all comes down to it, this is where I am at also. The final cost will be somewhat irrelevant compared to the perceived value I expect to have.

 

[daleperchn]

@Jaynay27:

Not sure what you mean by 'playing around' or 'again'?

Sorry. It just seemed like you were playing around earlier in the posts, like when you said, "Hey no way! I paid for that lifetime/early access as a kickstarter only exclusive offer and no-one should be able to get lifetime access now, blah, blah, blah elitism etc.....just kidding.", so I wasn't sure if you were playing around this time or not.

And I was pretty much just playing around too with the two points that I made. Sort of a friendly rebuttal. I definitely don't want to start an argument or anything!

One could read that this suggests they may offer lifetime subs at *lower* than top tier cloud access, for new customers, and reserve *top tier* lifetime access for the original backers.

If you weren't playing around, then this sort of made it sound like you're against lifetime subscriptions being offered at the highest levels for those of us who unfortunately missed the KS. I know you did a smiley and all, but from just reading a message, it sometimes makes it a little hard to tell a person's tone. I'm sorry if took it the wrong way. I know overall you seem pretty positive about it this...

 

[Jaynay27]

@Jaynay27:



Sorry. It just seemed like you were playing around earlier in the posts, like when you said, "Hey no way! I paid for that lifetime/early access as a kickstarter only exclusive offer and no-one should be able to get lifetime access now, blah, blah, blah elitism etc.....just kidding.", so I wasn't sure if you were playing around this time or not.

And I was pretty much just playing around too with the two points that I made. Sort of a friendly rebuttal. I definitely don't want to start an argument or anything!



If you weren't playing around, then this sort of made it sound like you're against lifetime subscriptions being offered at the highest levels for those of us who unfortunately missed the KS. I know you did a smiley and all, but from just reading a message, it sometimes makes it a little hard to tell a person's tone. I'm sorry if took it the wrong way. I know overall you seem pretty positive about it this...

That's cool man - I was having a bad day too and I took it badly...not your fault. So for what it is worth, sorry if my post tone was aggressive/defensive.

We are cool mate and I think we are on the same page regarding the lifetime fee/sub. My stance is the more the merrier, and hope LWD works out a way to help all you guys who missed the KS and have been waiting patiently for 1.0 release.

 

[EclecticGamer]

I will say that personally as an Alpha Wolf backer I would be at least a little upset by this if they offered it at any price. This is not because I don't want other people to have it but I would feel like they lied to trick me into paying a lot of money upfront by saying that this was the only way to get lifetime access. I thought long and hard about whether or not it was worth putting up that much money.

I would only be so upset, and I'd get over it but I think it was be a slight image problem for LWD.

 

[mirtos]

Lone Wolf should absolutely be free to offer lifetime services of cloud, but like the others, I would also be annoyed if it was offered at a rate significantly less the the $250.00. You can make an argument that maybe you did the alpha for the early access, but maybe you did it for the cloud. In any case, if I felt that someone was getting the same service as me for less and i put money into a product that I couldnt see but took on faith, and they could see the product before deciding, I would feel my faith had been breached.

I of course feel bad for anyone who missed the kickstarter and would have taken part in it, but everyone has to have a certain amount of self-interest when they consider that amount of money.

just my two cents.

 

[ruhar]

It would depend on the price and my budget at the time, but I would be interested in it.
+1

 

[daleperchn]

Lifetime licenses

Now that Realm Works has been officially released, maybe we'll receive more participation in this thread...

 

[zarlor]

Well, I think folks might want to see what they will really be getting with cloud service first, which for the moment only entails syncing your own realms. Maybe once Player View is up and we have the ability to share and/or purchase realms people will have a better idea of what the real value of it is.

 

[rob]

There are NO IMMEDIATE PLANS on our part to introduce a lifetime license option. We very well could offer something like that at some point in the future, but it's not something we are actively considering. We have a lot on our plate right now, and figuring out how best to structure something like this would take our attention away from other things that we consider much higher priority to the overall success of the product.

Feel free to continue discussing this subject however you wish, since it's valuable for us to know what our users are thinking. However, please don't expect any announcements about this subject in the upcoming weeks.