What does Pathfinder 2nd Edition mean for RW?

[daplunk]

True but D20Pro went the other way round.

I doubt WOTC would worry about this. They are clearly the more popular system and having their brand present in the popular systems used by their competitors players opens up the door to try and attract those players over to the brand as well.

 

[Valyar]

Things get darker and fragmented.

 

[gaffneyks]

WOTC got a bad rep by partnering with software companies that could not deliver.

Currently the general perception is LWD has missed date after date and has not delivered on the content market.

After getting burned in the past, i doubt WOTC even considers a partnership with LWD until the Content Market is actually live, as of right now it is fictional.

If the Content Market goes live, works and is a success. I would expect WOTC to jump on board as quick as possible.

Their parent company seems to jump on anything that makes the money. Comic Books, Candy, A MMO, Iphone games, Deodorant. I am shocked after the success of a certain kickstarter they have not tried to focus on a live stream .....

 

[daplunk]

Agree with that for sure. LWD have done themselves no favours in current years and need to put a foot forward to restore confidence. Even if the foot doesn't have a shoe on.

WOTC have shown that they are willing to work with anyone who is serious and have a workable product as long as they are willing to pay. They would not have licensed three separate VTT's if that was not the case. DnDBeyond will possibly be the spanner in the cog though.

 

[Dark Lord Galen]

Warning a slight soap box ahead... hehhe

I feel old every time I see that signature where you define yourself as a certified old coot because you have DM'd since the 84 Red Box.
I still have my brown wood grain box from Jan 74 so what does that make me? A certified dinosaur?

Gord,
I started in 1974 also... and yes, we are venerable if not ancient in game terms. However, it also means we get a discount at the movie theaters...

At the risk of turning this thread into an old gits gathering,...............There's still a few of us silver-haired old characters lurking between the threads. Thought I'd raise my head for this one.

To get back on topic - editions come and editions go..................I think RealmWorks will accommodate whatever comes easily.

Well don't know about the rest of you "old gits", "Coots", "1/2 priced movie goers".. I like to consider us those Ancient Gronard Gargantuan Dragons that sit on our various hordes in whatever realm is our preference (for me that's the First and Best.... Greyhawk) and show these "hairling adventurers" the meaning of why it's Dungeons and Dragons, not Dungeons & trolls nor Dungeons & vampires etc, but DRAGONS.......... to be feared, respected and inspiring awe and wisdom when they come forth from their lair !!! .. Maawaaahhaaahahaha ...... Sorry lost control there for a bit... hehe

I doubt WOTC would worry about this. They are clearly the more popular system and having their brand present in the popular systems used by their competitors players opens up the door to try and attract those players over to the brand as well.

As to this,,, a few charts (while colorful) one must consider the source data.... I assure you WOC is Worried.... personally knowing executives in both camps.
Since the release of OGL of 3.0 & 3.5 combined with the lack of WOC (and then later add Hazbro) to recognize their challengers, (primarily but not exclusively Piazo PFF), WOC/Haz has been effective getting their butts kicked.
Starting with a 4e attempted to make D&D more like Magic the Gathering, to delayed releases of 5e core, continual regurgitation of old "core rules" (1e & 2e) and 3.5 thru 4e core releases without NEW supporting product line to generate revenue. Choosing reliance on "re-branding" old 2e to support 3.5 & 4e didn't help them maintain dominance.

The debacle withdrawal of support of Dragon / Dungeon magazines.
The removal of support of Living Greyhawk, the first world wide campaign system, etc.... All created a cascade of events leading to a downturn in their market share. And while they were reporting increased sales compared to where TSR was with 1e and 2e, those numbers didn't reflect to very stark facts. One> The public view had changed, Two> before OGL there was no market competition Three> The gaming industry at the turn of the century was on a upturn compared to 1980-1990 So all fronts were making money.

But if you look at what was produced, in the WOC / Haz window, and compare it to other publications, WOC went from sole provider of 3.0 to 3.5 to be challenged by bit support by Paizo (and others) in 2002. Paizo on the other hand has gone from just supporting Dragon & Dungeon Magazines in 2002 to, 3.5 support, to creating pathfinder, to now Starfinder in 2017. WOC in that amount of time didn't get exclusive revenue for the support supplements for most of 3.5. And 4e was a near failure as judged by most of their core fanbase.
In short WOC went from having almost exclusive provider of tabletop Role play to having several viable companies to challenge them in the market. Odd thing is they could have avoided it all.. but that's another tale......
WOC had no choice but to try and bring back those they were losing to other markets with the release of 5e by hiring former writers back (Ed Greenwood for one) and bring back another loved campaign setting, Forgotten Realms, in the hopes that they could lure those "old silvere-haird Grunard Dragons"(and their respective "spawn" back from the razor coast to live the tales their elders once told..

BUT even that was a VERY rocky release, 5e ("Next" as it was sometimes labeled) taking twice as long as forecasted to complete. And WOC still supporting a haphazard business model of still dangling regurgitations on the memories of old... by transplanting blatant Greyhawk adventures recovered and shoe-horned into a setting they were not originally designed for... hummmm...

All the While Piazo with PFF and Kobold Press with Midgard are blazing out in new places to adventure. So, it's more likely the data represented is a "feel good" from WOC/HAzbo combined with date migration from the generation of having to have the newest shiney at the time....

Lately to add .. WOC's waning presence in trade venues of various conventions. For just one example, there were far more PFF games to be played than all other D&D editions combined at last years 50 Gencon , and this is one of the worlds largest table top gaming conventions, and WOC presence was sparse at best.... that conveys to me based on Gencon Model, that PFF is the most popular system currently...

Don't get me wrong.. I'm a diehard Greyhawker, but have been watching the industry since the white box. That has allowed me the good fortune of working with many people that are now progressed from the early days of the gaming industry to be leads in other companies now.... we play, converse, and break bread at many venues across the country chatting about this very thing. And over all, the interest has certainly increased from the 1980 "devil-worship" labeling we "Old Dragons" endured in the day, so that's good for all, no matter what company or campaign setting you support.
But WOC/ Haz is not as assured as suggested.

Agree with that for sure. LWD have done themselves no favours in current years and need to put a foot forward to restore confidence. Even if the foot doesn't have a shoe on.

Sadly, this is true... just one such instance was too much focus has been placed around a "poll" that was terribly weighted in favor of what a "player wanted to see" than in what the DM needed to provide a good platform to game from. (IMO)

Anyway Us "Ancient Dragons" need to provide the guidance and direction to great gaming into the next generation because there is no greater form of entertainment than the imagination. And if they get too far out a line, as the old saying goes....
"To a dragon, your are crunchy and good with ketchup".. hehe

DLG

 

[Asandir]

Wow. Fascinating post. And yes, I am also one of those "old gits" that has been gaming since the mid 70's. Not quite to half price movie tickets, though I am the old man of my gaming group.

 

[daplunk]

Excellent read.

Do you think that conventions are a true reflection of the Industy as a whole anymore?

Persoanlly I don't see people flocking to conventions. Granted I'm in Australia so very different scene down here but it would seem to me that the demographic has shifted significantly. Just like the computer game industry where the old school players play pc, the new blood play consoles but the largest group of players is now the mobile gamers.

I don't think conventions are a true reflection of the industry anymore. The world has chaged and the idea of having to go to a convention to get a game is no longer necessary or even something a vast number of players would consider.

 

[Valyar]

Especially when the VTT products like Fantasy Grounds or Roll20 allows us to play without leaving the comfort of our home while keeping the same level of engagement with the community via forums.

Great post, Dark Lord Galen!

 

[kbs666]

I think most people still play face to face. Those VTT numbers are far too small to sustain even one company much less the entire industry. Further GenCon and the other major cons, Essen, the various PAX, have all seen significant attendance growth in the last few years. From what I know of the industry physical GM items like minis and maps still sell well which is more evidence most people still play in person.

 

[daplunk]

I think most people still play face to face.

Agree completely. They are just an indicator upon which you need to look at other external factors in order to trust the data. Some things I've considered.

Activity of social media groups.
What % of shelf space is given to each product in brick and mortar stores?
What % of sales by product are distributors seeing?
Popularity of live streams.

Everything I have seen in these other areas of data indicate the information provided by the VTT's is in the realm of correct.

 

[Parody]

Lately to add .. WOC's waning presence in trade venues of various conventions. For just one example, there were far more PFF games to be played than all other D&D editions combined at last years 50 Gencon , and this is one of the worlds largest table top gaming conventions, and WOC presence was sparse at best.... that conveys to me based on Gencon Model, that PFF is the most popular system currently...

At Gen Con Indy 2017, looking only at RPGs, there were 747 D&D events across the various versions vs. 519 Pathfinder events. (Source: gencon.highprogrammer.com; I'd do my own number crunching but I'm on my phone.)

Wizards/Hasbro stopped having an official presence at Gen Con a few years ago and has another group organize Adventures League events. They said they'd rather put marketing efforts into the game stores vs. having a large convention presence.

Smaller conventions are poor reflections of the industry as the events are dominated by the local folks who want to run things. For example, at two nearby cons with roughly 1500 individual attendees that I attended last year, one was more PF than D&D and the other was much more D&D.

ObTopic: I'm sure Paizo's sales will go down between now and the release of Pathfinder 2 in 2019, and it will ripple to third parties like LWD. How well the (free!) playtest version is received should show how much of a rebound to expect. In theory this should hit Hero Lab more than Realm Works, if/when the store is up and running.

 

[kbs666]

? There were way more than 519 pathfinder tables at GenCon 2017. You must not have counted the PFS stuff.

 

[daplunk]

Some more data has been released. This one has Starfinder topping Pathfinder for the period. Logical given it launched around the time of the data collection.

https://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/39857/top-5-roleplaying-games-fall-2017

 

[kbs666]

Some more data has been released. This one has Starfinder topping Pathfinder for the period. Logical given it launched around the time of the data collection.

https://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/39857/top-5-roleplaying-games-fall-2017

That seems to be physical sales at brick and mortar stores. While a good indicator it leaves out a big chunk of the market. I'm a subscriber of all the Paizo products I routinely buy, pawns, maps, AP's. So unless those numbers include those direct sales from Paizo it leaves out all the people like me.

I'm not shocked that a lot of Starfinder books got sold in in the last part of 2017 but to imagine it outsold all of PF seems unlikely. They simply don't capture the way a lot of PF material is sold which is through Paizo's own site.

 

[Parody]

? There were way more than 519 pathfinder tables at GenCon 2017. You must not have counted the PFS stuff.

That count includes all of PFS; however, it's events, not tables or player-hours. Many events of both systems are multiple tables. There were also a lot of Paizo's tables diverted to Starfinder.

Normally I'd do this sort of analysis in player-hours, but I wasn't about to do that on my phone at 1:30 in the morning. Now that I'm at a computer, I can do that analysis. (You can do it too by downloading the data from their website; I forgot to do a "week of the convention" download this year, unfortunately, but the same sort of data is available from Gen Con's website during the convention season.)

There were 51829 Pathfinder player-hours available vs. 37227 for D&D, roughly 40% more spots for players. If you bundle in Starfinder's 9870, that's 61699 and roughly 66% more. So there were more places for Pathfinder players, but not as many as I might have expected given Paizo's presence and Wizards/Hasbro's non-involvement.

Unfortunately, these numbers don't tell us how many of those player-hours were actually played as Gen Con doesn't release that information. That's what I'd really like to see for this sort of comparison.

 

[kbs666]

That seems more reasonable. I saw both play areas the last several years and 66% more seems about right for last year. WotC refusing to fully participate in GenCon since the failure of 4e has made little sense. The only thing I've been able to figure out is that Hasbro wants to extricate themselves from the hobby aspects of the industry.

 

[Dark Lord Galen]

..........There were 51829 Pathfinder player-hours available vs. 37227 for D&D, roughly 40% more spots for players. If you bundle in Starfinder's 9870, that's 61699 and roughly 66% more. So there were more places for Pathfinder players, but not as many as I might have expected given Paizo's presence and Wizards/Hasbro's non-involvement.

which forecasts to the premise earlier... that PF was the more dominant, at least in that comparison.. but you have concluded as much with the data update... but I too agree as the convention sizing / locale changes so does the representation, esp locally....
But the curious point to be taken is Gencon isn't Comic-con, Pax, etc... it's roots and even evolution is geared to the roleplay gamer genre. And for WOC to declare we are supporting Brix & Stix over that (having heard the same corporate doublespeak in exactly that phrasing ironically) just strikes me odd personally since it the pinnacle best place for them to reach the public in mass.... hummmm

Especially, if I compare the result of that business model for a sanity check of truth.... Looking around locale gaming shops in my area (Houston .... 4th largest city in the country), WOC presence is sparse at best... most gaming stores leaning harder toward the support of Magic, and other card type games, with Pathfinder and now a slight new emerging following of 5e / Starfinder bringing up the rear.
Further, My work travels allow me to cross compare that in other places for consistency ,,,,, Dallas, San Antonio, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Reading Pa, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Tuscon, Las Vegas, Edmonton, Vancouver, London, Belize... and sadly I must report that the Houston "baseline" is fairly consistent throughout all of those places.
Magic is still very popular (for me cant imagine why... but hey whats an old git like me know hehhe) When traveling I quest for pick up games along the line of Car Wars, Ogre Ogre, and Avalon Hill Products so "poeTAtoe-PAtAHtoe" lol...
So based on my own observations WOC business platform is saying one thing yet their execution seems mostly reliant on the opposite. To hope the masses come to their site for their products, and / or a third party electronic link via some business arrangement.. ie Drivethrurpg, etc... And they appear content to continue to ride the wave of regurgitation and Magic to maintain their profit margin. But Hey.. that model has, in part, worked for years for Hazbro... we have all seen the many regurgitations of monopoly...

Unfortunately, these numbers don't tell us how many of those player-hours were actually played as Gen Con doesn't release that information. That's what I'd really like to see for this sort of comparison.

Totally agree, that matrix is better representative of the true data to be considered for the topic, as you also point out

Then that means nothing. PFS had ballroom spanning events that only had one event code as well as simply having more than one table per event code per slot.

Donno know that it means "nothing" but your overall point does have merit.

The propensity for the Gencon event setup makes bottom line numbers convoluted because of that participation framework. Some events having into the hundreds other as little as six....

Having visited the Ballroom upstairs for Paizo PF, it was always at near max capacity at all tables when I was their conversing with Eric Mona, or Colen, or Anna Meyer (the first affiliated with Paizo, the later two representing LWD).

But I agree with Michael, Player hours are the closest you have if you measure that with the caveat of knowing not all players attend events they sign up for.

So you "could" back into the data by looking at the number of event tickets , but even that is skewed due to a re-arrangement of the seating in the PF ballroom by day two to accommodate more tables.. so hard to say definitive results of the PF side.

On the inverse, several of the D&D tables in Lucas Field were 1/2 full, combined, or even canceled even though event tickets had been assigned.

Of three events on the D&D side my group had scheduled 1 table ended up combined to make a full table (6people) (and accommodate a DM shortage for that event, Sunday), the 2nd was entirely my bunch (6 of us) because they wanted to play a 2e variant with the "old Dragon" (aka me) as a player instead of my usual role as DM. The Last event (for us anyway) was canceled because of the lack of full table (3 of us) and a substitute DM that couldn't play the whole session.. humm....

So we spent time going thru the memorabilia area, which was more fun for my players than myself , simply because they spent most of there time going , "hey you got that".. "you got that too".... "wow, you've had that since 1978???"....boy nothing like a make you feel old moment !!

Anyway, even with less than concrete data, the suggested trend, as Michael detailed above, shows a slip in WOC/Haz market share participation. Whether WOC wishes to accept that or pretend all is well by selective verbiage is a different matter..

IMO
DLG

 

[Dark Lord Galen]

.........WotC refusing to fully participate in GenCon since the failure of 4e has made little sense. The only thing I've been able to figure out is that Hasbro wants to extricate themselves from the hobby aspects of the industry.

That's my interpretation as well...

 

[Dark Lord Galen]

Excellent read.

Do you think that conventions are a true reflection of the Industy as a whole anymore?

Persoanlly I don't see people flocking to conventions. Granted I'm in Australia so very different scene down here but it would seem to me that the demographic has shifted significantly. Just like the computer game industry where the old school players play pc, the new blood play consoles but the largest group of players is now the mobile gamers.

I don't think conventions are a true reflection of the industry anymore. The world has chaged and the idea of having to go to a convention to get a game is no longer necessary or even something a vast number of players would consider.

As KD666 pointed out above.... at least here in the USA, conventions are on the rise actually, all reporting record numbers, and Last year Gencon sold out and is on pace to do so again with excess of 60,000 attendees for the event...

so I think that as an industry that grew out of a few people's basements and locale community centers, in the 1970's is still growing...

Granted VTT and on line collaborations will have an effect both ways, but even using LWD as a point of reference to bring the thread back to origin post.....

LWD have people that work locally together, yet also collaborate with others internal to their business and externally to their business model in an offside remote capacity also.

Also utilizing interactions at Conventions, they treat those venues as collaboration points, round tabling and future (hopefully) points of capital revenue creation... So, the 21st century company to be successful should embrace all facets .. IMO
Of course this is as a speculative outsider... BJ or Rob certainly could speak to this in more learned detail than I for LWD... but in doing this for other companies I can say the approach is the same.. its the commodity that varies...

Without the existence of OGL on 5e its difficult for LWD to do alot to support WOC D&D products.

As to Pathfinder 2e.. the debates of content management for PF products for the Content Market will no doubt also carry into the 2e version as well. Hopefully, the drawn out suffering of that process for the masses will allow the 2e PF group to reap the benefits of a shorter resolution... but only time will tell there.
But since I don't have a dog in the 2ePF race.... my hope doesn't extend out further than those that have suffered longer... Journals, individual character reveal and ......duh duh duhhhhhhhh....... Calendars....

 

[kbs666]

I will also point out that the big conventions are also major points of contact between the game companies and between them and freelancers. There is the GAMA trade show, ironically it is going on as I write this, but I get the impression that attendance is sparse and little serious business is conducted there.