What does Pathfinder 2nd Edition mean for RW?

[Parody]

I forgot to talk about the meanings of the various numbers (statistics being meaningless without context, after all).

Events
The count of events represent the total opportunities an individual attendee has to play that system. This is the number I care about as a player, and why it was what I posted first.

Player-Hours
Player-Hours represent how much of the attendee population's time could be spent playing this system. At Gen Con this is also how much money the attendees spend playing, as most events cost $1 per player-hour to play. This is the number Gen Con LLC cares about.

The in-between number that I think you'd find interesting is Players.

Players
Players represent how many different attendees could potentially play in a system over the course of the convention. For our two system groups, D&D had 10812 available player slots, Pathfinder had 11208, and Starfinder 2844. This gives Pathfinder ~3.6% more player slots than D&D and PF+SF ~30%.


Adding some responses:

Originally Posted by Dark Lord Galen

Anyway, even with less than concrete data, the suggested trend, as Michael detailed above, shows a slip in WOC/Haz market share participation.

I'm not sure. The number of D&D events at Gen Con Indy has been growing over the last few years even without direct participation from Wizards/Hasbro.

Originally Posted by Dark Lord Galen

Looking around locale gaming shops in my area (Houston...), WOC presence is sparse at best.

At stores and conventions in Minnesota and Wisconsin I've seen pretty good attendance for PFS and Adventurers League, but more store space emphasis on D&D.

Originally Posted by Dark Lord Galen

Last year Gencon sold out and is on pace to do so again with excess of 60,000 attendees for the event...

Gen Con's individual attendance has been static the last couple of years, despite small variances in turnstile attendance. It's also likely to remain at approximately 61,000 as it was partially due to the Fire Marshal. I miss Gen Con Indy being somewhat smaller, honestly, but it is what it is.

[kbs666]

Here in Chicago PFS has dropped off somewhat since 5e launched and DDAL has gained popularity quite a bit. I think if you total up all the public venues there are still more players and tables of PFS each week but the gap is far smaller than it used to be.

[daplunk]

Originally Posted by Dark Lord Galen

And for WOC to declare we are supporting Brix & Stix over that (having heard the same corporate doublespeak in exactly that phrasing ironically) just strikes me odd personally since it the pinnacle best place for them to reach the public in mass.... hummmm

Brix & Stix and Conventions are not even close to the best way to reach the public in mass anymore.

Non-Official Facebook Groups
Dungeons and Dragons 5e: 120,696 Members (And I do wonder how many people have left this group because it took over their feed, there's 5-10 updated posts every couple of seconds in here)
Pathfinder: 25,216 Members
Starfinder: 12,068 Members

TWITTER
Dungeons and Dragons 5e: 149,000 followers
Paizo (PF and SF): 39,000 followers

TWITCH
Dungeons and Dragons 5e: 91,647 followers
Paizo (PF and SF): 2,749 followers

On any given day through peoples day to day engagement with social media they can potentially communicate with 89,000 more people than GenCon managed and that's just considering Twitter. There's vastly less work involved and the nature of social media means the community drive a lot of the content leaving WOTC to focus on creating products to sell and managing licensing rights.

I think the reason they largely pulled out of conventions is quite clear. They are no longer as valuable as they used to be for them. I would challenge that conventions attract people who are already your customers and in a lot of cases attracts people from inside the industry or people wanting to be inside the industry. WOTC are focusing on mediums where they can attract not just original but new players as well.

The data suggests it's working. There is a distinct pattern in the data I have provided and patterns usually tell a story.

[kbs666]

Originally Posted by daplunk

I think the reason they largely pulled out of conventions is quite clear. They are no longer as valuable as they used to be for them. I would challenge that conventions attract people who are already your customers and in a lot of cases attracts people from inside the industry or people wanting to be inside the industry. WOTC are focusing on mediums where they can attract not just original but new players as well.

I think conventions actually give game companies a chance to directly engage with "influencers" while WotC relies on the brand recognition of D&D as equivalent to RPG's amongst the larger public to allow them to be the default game for most people trying out an RPG or for parents buying an RPG for their kids.

I would suggest this is why 5e is succeeding and 4e failed. 5e is roughly what people expect and is simple enough to easily learn, and the beginners set is a very good one at that. While 4e was more aimed at experienced MMO players and not at the kid who has read LotR or Hobbit.

This does still mean WotC has less motivation to go all in at conventions but I think they are conceding the "advanced" and second RPG market to others simply by not showing up.

[Dark Lord Galen]

Originally Posted by kbs666

Here in Chicago PFS has dropped off somewhat since 5e launched and DDAL has gained popularity quite a bit. I think if you total up all the public venues there are still more players and tables of PFS each week but the gap is far smaller than it used to be.

Humm Thanks for sharing...
It would be an interesting poll if there was some way to insure the data was representative.
Just looking at the three of us I predominantly (but not exclusively) southeast / Gulf Coast/ Midwest.. see a general decline with Magic still being the prefered entertainment choice, Yet Michael and yourself in other parts of the country seeing something different.... I would add that 40K and similar genre seem to dominate more than RPG styles out of country in my visits from what I have seen.

@ Daplunk
Oh I certainly agree with your assessment, welcome to the twenty-first century .... hehe
But like Parody, I have heard that EXACT statement from WOC representatives on their retraction from conventions... which is why I found the statement odd from a company that should be leading the way since they certainly remind EVERYONE they own the IP...
As you point out,,, the unvarnished truth is probably as you suggest .. they don't feel the conventions need their support...hummm

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out...
Back to your regularly scheduled waiting for content market channel.... hehehe

[kbs666]

Magic is still huge here. I was strictly discussing organized play RPG campaigns. If I wanted I could play MtG on pretty much every night of the week in some format at some venue. There are at least a half dozen different places near me that host Friday Night Magic. Based on amount of shelf space devoted to MtG singles and paraphernalia I would guess that most, all, of the game stores in the local area rely on MtG for a large part of their sales income. Dice Dojo, the nearby very nice store, carries a lot of board games as well so I assume they must do some significant volume in board games.

[daplunk]

MtG is huge down here also. It's pretty well known that game shops need MtG in order to survive down here.

I don't get that one at all

Board games has picked up significantly in previous years also.

[Gord]

Originally Posted by daplunk

MtG is huge down here also. It's pretty well known that game shops need MtG in order to survive down here.

I don't get that one at all

Board games has picked up significantly in previous years also.

Admittedly, I am an outlier due to the size of my store but to give you some real world examples for Feb which was a slow month:

CCGs: $46,000
Collectable Minis: $4200
Events: $4300 (mostly Magic drafts)
Family/Strategy Games: $54,500 (about $140,000 in December)
SF&F Minis: $18,500
Food: $2500
Games Workshop: $35,000
Dice/Dice Bags: $8500 (this is a typical month for dice now and is becoming a key indicator for RPGs in general for me)
Wargames: $3700 (slow month)
Historical Minis: $7300
Military History Books: $1000 (way down from a few years ago)
RPGs: $19,900 (of which $11,500 was D&D)
SF&F Novels: $3500
Total $215,000

I will point out that December was about double this number and the big winners that month were Boardgames, D&D and Dice ($16,500 in dice if you can believe it). D&D was huge and we were moving a players handbook or two every day with even more starter sets. The big growth has been with families and women (usually aged 15-30). Magic is still significant but has slowed and is certainly not a make or break item for us as it is for a lot of non-diversifed stores.

To give some perspective, I've been doing this for 38 years so have built up a good clientele in the city, and we have about $1,000,000 in inventory with 19,000 sq.ft. of space. Calgary is about 1.1 million in population with perhaps another 100,000 people within an hours drive. The closest city of a similar size is 3 hours away.

My point with showing this is to show that D&D is back to being the elephant in the room for RPGs with 5e. Pathfinder has slowed incredibly and their mail order discount/humble bundle policies have done nothing to endear them to retailers. Don't get me wrong though. Discounts on Amazon are a pain in the ass for us as for a certain group, they lower the perceived value of the books. Having said that, we still do just fine and I think at last count, we had moved about 1800 Player's Handbooks and about half as many each of the MM and DMG.

If RW could get a deal with WOTC, it would be worth far more than the Paizo deal to them in the long run. Having said that, I cannot imagine the hassles of dealing with either of those two entities so I find it difficult to criticise what is going on. I've met Rob many times over the years and he is passionate about what he wants with RW and I know it is great hands in the long run.

[daplunk]

Thanks for sharing Gord!

Fascinating how much people are willing to spend on those cards. The data certainly aligns which what I've been seeing.

Here's an article relevant to this conversation. I think it gives a bit of insight into why they are moving away from the conventions. They want to break the stigma that D&D has historically had. To do that they appear to have embraced the streaming platform and are placing a lot of success on that platform. Instead of doing new product reveals at a convention for example it was all done on Twitch recently.

Lets hope they don't mess the movie up this time

[Rone]

Originally Posted by daplunk

Lets hope they don't mess the movie up this time

What? No Atari 2600 graphics worthy trolls shouting humiliating modernist zingers at Zac Ephron in a bad wig portraying the Knight Enday as he repeatedly slips and pratfalls in a wide puddle of defeated ooze?

::tears up THAT script attempt::