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Parody
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Old March 14th, 2018, 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Lord Galen View Post
Lately to add .. WOC's waning presence in trade venues of various conventions. For just one example, there were far more PFF games to be played than all other D&D editions combined at last years 50 Gencon , and this is one of the worlds largest table top gaming conventions, and WOC presence was sparse at best.... that conveys to me based on Gencon Model, that PFF is the most popular system currently...
At Gen Con Indy 2017, looking only at RPGs, there were 747 D&D events across the various versions vs. 519 Pathfinder events. (Source: gencon.highprogrammer.com; I'd do my own number crunching but I'm on my phone.)

Wizards/Hasbro stopped having an official presence at Gen Con a few years ago and has another group organize Adventures League events. They said they'd rather put marketing efforts into the game stores vs. having a large convention presence.

Smaller conventions are poor reflections of the industry as the events are dominated by the local folks who want to run things. For example, at two nearby cons with roughly 1500 individual attendees that I attended last year, one was more PF than D&D and the other was much more D&D.

ObTopic: I'm sure Paizo's sales will go down between now and the release of Pathfinder 2 in 2019, and it will ripple to third parties like LWD. How well the (free!) playtest version is received should show how much of a rebound to expect. In theory this should hit Hero Lab more than Realm Works, if/when the store is up and running.


Last edited by Parody; March 14th, 2018 at 10:32 PM.
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kbs666
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Old March 15th, 2018, 04:54 AM
? There were way more than 519 pathfinder tables at GenCon 2017. You must not have counted the PFS stuff.

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daplunk
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Old March 15th, 2018, 06:00 AM
Some more data has been released. This one has Starfinder topping Pathfinder for the period. Logical given it launched around the time of the data collection.

https://icv2.com/articles/markets/vi...ames-fall-2017

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kbs666
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Old March 15th, 2018, 07:16 AM
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Originally Posted by daplunk View Post
Some more data has been released. This one has Starfinder topping Pathfinder for the period. Logical given it launched around the time of the data collection.

https://icv2.com/articles/markets/vi...ames-fall-2017
That seems to be physical sales at brick and mortar stores. While a good indicator it leaves out a big chunk of the market. I'm a subscriber of all the Paizo products I routinely buy, pawns, maps, AP's. So unless those numbers include those direct sales from Paizo it leaves out all the people like me.

I'm not shocked that a lot of Starfinder books got sold in in the last part of 2017 but to imagine it outsold all of PF seems unlikely. They simply don't capture the way a lot of PF material is sold which is through Paizo's own site.

my Realm Works videos
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Parody
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Old March 15th, 2018, 07:17 AM
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Originally Posted by kbs666 View Post
? There were way more than 519 pathfinder tables at GenCon 2017. You must not have counted the PFS stuff.
That count includes all of PFS; however, it's events, not tables or player-hours. Many events of both systems are multiple tables. There were also a lot of Paizo's tables diverted to Starfinder.

Normally I'd do this sort of analysis in player-hours, but I wasn't about to do that on my phone at 1:30 in the morning. Now that I'm at a computer, I can do that analysis. (You can do it too by downloading the data from their website; I forgot to do a "week of the convention" download this year, unfortunately, but the same sort of data is available from Gen Con's website during the convention season.)

There were 51829 Pathfinder player-hours available vs. 37227 for D&D, roughly 40% more spots for players. If you bundle in Starfinder's 9870, that's 61699 and roughly 66% more. So there were more places for Pathfinder players, but not as many as I might have expected given Paizo's presence and Wizards/Hasbro's non-involvement.

Unfortunately, these numbers don't tell us how many of those player-hours were actually played as Gen Con doesn't release that information. That's what I'd really like to see for this sort of comparison.


Last edited by Parody; March 15th, 2018 at 07:51 AM.
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kbs666
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Old March 15th, 2018, 07:40 AM
That seems more reasonable. I saw both play areas the last several years and 66% more seems about right for last year. WotC refusing to fully participate in GenCon since the failure of 4e has made little sense. The only thing I've been able to figure out is that Hasbro wants to extricate themselves from the hobby aspects of the industry.

my Realm Works videos
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Last edited by kbs666; March 15th, 2018 at 09:07 AM.
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Dark Lord Galen
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Old March 15th, 2018, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Parody View Post
..........There were 51829 Pathfinder player-hours available vs. 37227 for D&D, roughly 40% more spots for players. If you bundle in Starfinder's 9870, that's 61699 and roughly 66% more. So there were more places for Pathfinder players, but not as many as I might have expected given Paizo's presence and Wizards/Hasbro's non-involvement.
which forecasts to the premise earlier... that PF was the more dominant, at least in that comparison.. but you have concluded as much with the data update... but I too agree as the convention sizing / locale changes so does the representation, esp locally....
But the curious point to be taken is Gencon isn't Comic-con, Pax, etc... it's roots and even evolution is geared to the roleplay gamer genre. And for WOC to declare we are supporting Brix & Stix over that (having heard the same corporate doublespeak in exactly that phrasing ironically) just strikes me odd personally since it the pinnacle best place for them to reach the public in mass.... hummmm

Especially, if I compare the result of that business model for a sanity check of truth.... Looking around locale gaming shops in my area (Houston .... 4th largest city in the country), WOC presence is sparse at best... most gaming stores leaning harder toward the support of Magic, and other card type games, with Pathfinder and now a slight new emerging following of 5e / Starfinder bringing up the rear.
Further, My work travels allow me to cross compare that in other places for consistency ,,,,, Dallas, San Antonio, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Reading Pa, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Tuscon, Las Vegas, Edmonton, Vancouver, London, Belize... and sadly I must report that the Houston "baseline" is fairly consistent throughout all of those places.
Magic is still very popular (for me cant imagine why... but hey whats an old git like me know hehhe) When traveling I quest for pick up games along the line of Car Wars, Ogre Ogre, and Avalon Hill Products so "poeTAtoe-PAtAHtoe" lol...
So based on my own observations WOC business platform is saying one thing yet their execution seems mostly reliant on the opposite. To hope the masses come to their site for their products, and / or a third party electronic link via some business arrangement.. ie Drivethrurpg, etc... And they appear content to continue to ride the wave of regurgitation and Magic to maintain their profit margin. But Hey.. that model has, in part, worked for years for Hazbro... we have all seen the many regurgitations of monopoly...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parody View Post
Unfortunately, these numbers don't tell us how many of those player-hours were actually played as Gen Con doesn't release that information. That's what I'd really like to see for this sort of comparison.
Totally agree, that matrix is better representative of the true data to be considered for the topic, as you also point out
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Originally Posted by kbs666 View Post
Then that means nothing. PFS had ballroom spanning events that only had one event code as well as simply having more than one table per event code per slot.
Donno know that it means "nothing" but your overall point does have merit.

The propensity for the Gencon event setup makes bottom line numbers convoluted because of that participation framework. Some events having into the hundreds other as little as six....

Having visited the Ballroom upstairs for Paizo PF, it was always at near max capacity at all tables when I was their conversing with Eric Mona, or Colen, or Anna Meyer (the first affiliated with Paizo, the later two representing LWD).

But I agree with Michael, Player hours are the closest you have if you measure that with the caveat of knowing not all players attend events they sign up for.

So you "could" back into the data by looking at the number of event tickets , but even that is skewed due to a re-arrangement of the seating in the PF ballroom by day two to accommodate more tables.. so hard to say definitive results of the PF side.

On the inverse, several of the D&D tables in Lucas Field were 1/2 full, combined, or even canceled even though event tickets had been assigned.

Of three events on the D&D side my group had scheduled 1 table ended up combined to make a full table (6people) (and accommodate a DM shortage for that event, Sunday), the 2nd was entirely my bunch (6 of us) because they wanted to play a 2e variant with the "old Dragon" (aka me) as a player instead of my usual role as DM. The Last event (for us anyway) was canceled because of the lack of full table (3 of us) and a substitute DM that couldn't play the whole session.. humm....

So we spent time going thru the memorabilia area, which was more fun for my players than myself , simply because they spent most of there time going , "hey you got that".. "you got that too".... "wow, you've had that since 1978???"....boy nothing like a make you feel old moment !!

Anyway, even with less than concrete data, the suggested trend, as Michael detailed above, shows a slip in WOC/Haz market share participation. Whether WOC wishes to accept that or pretend all is well by selective verbiage is a different matter..

IMO
DLG

D&D> Pre 1e White Box Edition, 1e, 2e, 3.5 Currently, Set in the World of Greyhawk (The first, longest running and Best Campaign Setting)
Software>Extensive use of all forms of MS Products, Visual Studio 2012, DAZ 3d, AutoCAD, Adobe Products.
Gaming Specific>Campaign Cartographer, D20 Pro Alpha & BattleGrounds Beta Tester, World Builder, Dungeon Crafter, LWD Hero Lab, Realm Works, Inkwell Ideas Citybuilder & Dungeon Builder, Auto-Realm, Dundjinni
Contributing Writer for TSR, WOC, & Canonfire

Last edited by Dark Lord Galen; March 15th, 2018 at 10:11 AM. Reason: Corrected Misspelling Michael's Name ..My Apologies
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Dark Lord Galen
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Old March 15th, 2018, 09:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kbs666 View Post
.........WotC refusing to fully participate in GenCon since the failure of 4e has made little sense. The only thing I've been able to figure out is that Hasbro wants to extricate themselves from the hobby aspects of the industry.
That's my interpretation as well...

D&D> Pre 1e White Box Edition, 1e, 2e, 3.5 Currently, Set in the World of Greyhawk (The first, longest running and Best Campaign Setting)
Software>Extensive use of all forms of MS Products, Visual Studio 2012, DAZ 3d, AutoCAD, Adobe Products.
Gaming Specific>Campaign Cartographer, D20 Pro Alpha & BattleGrounds Beta Tester, World Builder, Dungeon Crafter, LWD Hero Lab, Realm Works, Inkwell Ideas Citybuilder & Dungeon Builder, Auto-Realm, Dundjinni
Contributing Writer for TSR, WOC, & Canonfire
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Dark Lord Galen
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Old March 15th, 2018, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by daplunk View Post
Excellent read.

Do you think that conventions are a true reflection of the Industy as a whole anymore?

Persoanlly I don't see people flocking to conventions. Granted I'm in Australia so very different scene down here but it would seem to me that the demographic has shifted significantly. Just like the computer game industry where the old school players play pc, the new blood play consoles but the largest group of players is now the mobile gamers.

I don't think conventions are a true reflection of the industry anymore. The world has chaged and the idea of having to go to a convention to get a game is no longer necessary or even something a vast number of players would consider.
As KD666 pointed out above.... at least here in the USA, conventions are on the rise actually, all reporting record numbers, and Last year Gencon sold out and is on pace to do so again with excess of 60,000 attendees for the event...

so I think that as an industry that grew out of a few people's basements and locale community centers, in the 1970's is still growing...

Granted VTT and on line collaborations will have an effect both ways, but even using LWD as a point of reference to bring the thread back to origin post.....

LWD have people that work locally together, yet also collaborate with others internal to their business and externally to their business model in an offside remote capacity also.

Also utilizing interactions at Conventions, they treat those venues as collaboration points, round tabling and future (hopefully) points of capital revenue creation... So, the 21st century company to be successful should embrace all facets .. IMO
Of course this is as a speculative outsider... BJ or Rob certainly could speak to this in more learned detail than I for LWD... but in doing this for other companies I can say the approach is the same.. its the commodity that varies...

Without the existence of OGL on 5e its difficult for LWD to do alot to support WOC D&D products.

As to Pathfinder 2e.. the debates of content management for PF products for the Content Market will no doubt also carry into the 2e version as well. Hopefully, the drawn out suffering of that process for the masses will allow the 2e PF group to reap the benefits of a shorter resolution... but only time will tell there.
But since I don't have a dog in the 2ePF race.... my hope doesn't extend out further than those that have suffered longer... Journals, individual character reveal and ......duh duh duhhhhhhhh....... Calendars....

D&D> Pre 1e White Box Edition, 1e, 2e, 3.5 Currently, Set in the World of Greyhawk (The first, longest running and Best Campaign Setting)
Software>Extensive use of all forms of MS Products, Visual Studio 2012, DAZ 3d, AutoCAD, Adobe Products.
Gaming Specific>Campaign Cartographer, D20 Pro Alpha & BattleGrounds Beta Tester, World Builder, Dungeon Crafter, LWD Hero Lab, Realm Works, Inkwell Ideas Citybuilder & Dungeon Builder, Auto-Realm, Dundjinni
Contributing Writer for TSR, WOC, & Canonfire
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kbs666
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Old March 15th, 2018, 11:04 AM
I will also point out that the big conventions are also major points of contact between the game companies and between them and freelancers. There is the GAMA trade show, ironically it is going on as I write this, but I get the impression that attendance is sparse and little serious business is conducted there.

my Realm Works videos
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZU...4DwXXkvmBXQ9Yw
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